Market note

September's Import Peak, and What It Leaves Inland

September 28, 2026

US ports were forecast to handle more imports in September 2026 than in any other month of the year. Every one of those loaded boxes is emptied somewhere, and a large share of them are emptied far from the coast. The peak on the quay is followed, weeks later, by a peak of empty equipment inland.

At a glance

Key takeaways

The NRF Global Port Tracker of 9 September 2026 forecast 2.31 million TEU of US imports for September, up 9.6% year on year and the peak month of 2026.
Much of that volume is emptied inland, at rail-served distribution hubs, not at the port of discharge.
Empties reach inland depots weeks after the import peak, while October to December volumes step down.
The 40ft high cube is the box least likely to find an inland export load, so it is the one most often sold where it stands.
A deeper inland pool widens the condition spread: grade and photos matter more than usual.

Scale model of an inland rail yard with a flatcar carrying white high cube containers and one blue container, more containers stacked beside the track

What the tracker shows

The Global Port Tracker, published by the National Retail Federation with Hackett Associates on 9 September 2026, puts US imports at 2.3 million TEU in July, the latest measured month. It forecasts 2.31 million TEU for September, 9.6% above September 2025 and the busiest month of the year.

Volumes step down after that: 2.11 million TEU forecast for October, 2.0 million for November and 2.03 million for December. The full year is projected at 25.7 million TEU, 1% above 2025.

The report cites vessel delays linked to weather in China, Panama Canal rerouting, tariff increases and fuel costs among the reasons the peak arrived late. This note describes the forecast as published on 9 September 2026; the monthly figures will be revised.

Where an import box is emptied

A container is rarely emptied at the port where it is discharged. A large share of Asian imports landing on the West Coast continue inland on rail, still loaded, to intermodal ramps in Chicago, Dallas, Memphis, Kansas City and Denver, then by truck to a distribution centre. The box becomes empty there, far from the sea.

From that point its owner, a carrier or a leasing company, has three options: find an export load nearby, move the empty back to a port at its own cost, or, for a unit near the end of its ocean service, sell it where it stands.

Why the inland peak lags the coastal one

The return flow follows the import flow with a delay: the rail leg inland, the unloading at the warehouse, the truck back to a depot. Boxes discharged during the September peak reach inland depots as empties over the following weeks.

Inland exports do not absorb them one for one. The US interior exports grain, hay, meat and scrap, but in far fewer boxes than it receives in consumer goods, and much of that cargo is heavy enough to travel in 20ft units. The 40ft high cube, the standard box for Asian consumer imports, is the one least likely to find an export load inland.

When October volumes fall back, fewer loaded boxes arrive to replace the ones returned. The empties from the peak are what inland depots hold.

What it means if you buy inland

For a buyer in Denver, Dallas or Memphis, the weeks after an import peak are usually when inland depots hold the deepest pool of used 40ft high cubes: cargo-worthy and wind-and-watertight boxes that their owners would rather sell locally than rail back empty.

New one-trip containers follow the same path. A one-trip unit is a new box that carried a single load from Asia; the import peak brings them inland along with everything else.

The condition spread widens at the same time. A deep inland pool holds sound and tired boxes side by side, so the grade on the quote and photos of the allocated boxes matter more than usual.

What outlasts the forecast

The tracker's figures will be revised and next year's peak will fall in a different month. The mechanism will not change: import volume arrives loaded on the coast and turns into empty equipment inland, and the inland pool is deepest just after the busiest import months.

The monthly import forecast is therefore a practical signal for anyone buying containers inland. It shows the movement weeks before it reaches a depot.

Questions

Frequently asked questions

Usually in the weeks after the busiest import months, when the empties from those imports return to inland depots. In 2026 the Global Port Tracker forecast September as the peak import month.

The 40ft high cube carries most Asian consumer imports and is emptied at inland distribution hubs. Inland exports are fewer and often heavy, so many of these boxes find no return load and are sold locally instead of being railed back empty.

Yes. A one-trip container is a new box that made one loaded voyage from Asia. It travels inland with the import flow like any other box.

No. A deep pool mixes sound and tired units. Ask for the grade in writing and photos of the boxes allocated to your order.